混凝土碳化灰色预测模型研究

Research on Grey Forecasting Model for Concrete Carbonation

关键词:  混凝土  碳化深度  灰色系统  模拟精度  预测模型

Key words:  concrete  carbonation depth  grey system  analog accuracy  forecasting model

摘要:

采用灰色系统理论方法，对不同水灰比及粉煤灰掺量混凝土的碳化方程进行灰色建模.分别对不同灰色预测模型进行比较分析，依据预测模型精度变化规律，给出了建立混凝土碳化深度灰色预测模型的基本方法.经实例验证，灰色预测模型针对性好、模拟精度高，并可采纳新信息进行新陈代谢，是一种可行、实用、应用范围广泛的方法.

Abstract:

Adopting the grey system theory, the carbonation equations for concrete with different water cement ratios and different fly ash contents are established, different grey models（GM）are compared and analyzed. Based on the forecasting accuracy variation of the models, a basic method to establish grey forecasting model for concrete carbonation depth is therefore proposed. Experiments show that GM forecasting is of good pertinence and high analog accuracy, and is capable of self updating when new information is found. As a conclusion, GM forecasting is a feasible and practical method with many field of applications.